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Despite the slowdown of US growth and the tension of trade associated with the policy of Donald Trump, JPMorgan took over optimism for American events. The bank sets a remarkable increase in the S&P 500 in the next 12 months, which carries the resistance of large companies and a favorable tax framework.
In short
- JPMorgan expects high yields for the S&P 500 despite the economic slowdown.
- 82 % of companies in the index exceeded the expectations of profits in the last quarter.
- Large companies are better adapted to customs tariffs than small and medium -sized enterprises.
JPMORGAN is on an increase in the S&P 500
JPMORGan establishes its optimistic predictions on an impressive quantified reality. In the last quarter of 82 % of the S&P 500 companies exceeded the expectations of analysts in terms of profits.
Even more revealing, 79 % exceeded their turnover goals. These performances indicate the highest level since the second quarter of 2021.
This resistance contrasts strongly with macroeconomic indicators. US annual growth forecasts have fallen by 2.3 % to 1.5 % since April.
The labor market slows down and inflationary pressures persist in the production industry and services. However, S&P 500 jumped by more than 28 %in four months.
According to JPMORGAN Asset Management, total forecasts for this year and next year are now on the rise. The market seems to better identify companies capable of failing to face the new conditions of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump.
Initially, expectations were presented to increase profits of less than 5 %. Now they are 11 %, which is a sign of great revision. This jump illustrates the exceptional capacity of large American companies quickly adapt to new economic and commercial realities.
Tax and strategic levers that increase prospects
The new US store configuration kicks a significant gap between the giants and small and medium -sized enterprises.
Small and medium -sized businesses, directly exposed to end consumers, see their predictions that stagnate. Their supply chains, not too flexible, limit their ability to respond quickly to customs duties.
On the other hand, large multinational companies transform these limitations into growth levers. Apple is a symbolic example: despite the presidential announcement of 100 % potential taxes of imported semiconductors, the group received exceptions.
Even better, the United States company has announced another investment of $ 100 billion, which launched a 9 % increase in its action in one week.
“One big beautiful act” (Obba) emphasizes this competitive advantage. These new regulations offer an immediate 100 % tax depreciation for qualified investments, a system that analysts consider to be able to massively stimulate investment expenditure of large groups.
For JPMORGan, masters of technology, finance and public services have decisive assets: critical size, strategic flexibility and control risks. So many elements that place them on the front line to use the new economic environment.
Therefore, the Bull’s predictions for the S&P 500 rely on paradoxical reality: in the context of trade tensions and economic slowdowns, large American societies show brilliant health. Dynamics, which, according to the training effect, could also benefit the cryptocurrency markets in the coming months and strengthen appetite for all risk assets.
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Passionate Bitcoin, I like to explore meanders blockchain and cryptos and share my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom is guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is a tool that can make it possible.
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The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.